Restaurants and cafes rarely fail because nobody came. They fail because rent was 15% of revenue while food, labour and overhead were another 90%. The rent-to-sales ratio — also called rent-to-revenue ratio — is the single most useful arithmetic you can do before signing a lease, and it takes ten minutes.
total annual occupancy cost ÷ projected annual sales × 100
"Occupancy cost" is not just the headline rent. It includes NNN / triple-net charges, common-area maintenance, property tax and insurance — the extras that quietly turn a "$3,000/month" lease into $4,400. Add them all, annualise, and only then divide.
Healthy. Rent is a manageable line item, not a bet.
Tight. You are betting everything on hitting forecast.
Most independents don't survive the first term here.
For a cafe, aim for the bottom of the range — 6–8% — because tickets are small and margin per drink is thin. A full-service restaurant with alcohol can carry a little more.
The ratio is only as honest as the "projected sales" number. The landlord's pitch deck optimistically assumes you'll be in the top decile of your category. Do the arithmetic with three scenarios instead:
If the lease only works in the upside scenario, it doesn't work.
A landlord quotes $3,200/month "base" on a 900-square-foot unit, plus $1,150/month in NNN and common-area costs. Total occupancy is $4,350/month, or $52,200 a year.
The $800/month that "sounded fine" in the pitch is the difference between a lease that works at 6% and one that only works if you're the best restaurant on the block. This is the arithmetic that decides whether a location is actually an opportunity.
Projected sales are not a guess — they are built from the same signals that predict survival: foot traffic past the door, the competitive set, residents per venue, and churn. A corner with strong measured foot traffic and healthy peer density can justify a higher sales forecast — and therefore a higher rent — than an isolated block. This is why rent decisions are really location decisions, and why a foot-traffic read should precede any lease negotiation.
Next: the full decision framework in how to choose a restaurant location, or the cafe-specific guide.